Thursday, July 31, 2008

Don’t Blame the Shorts. Blame the Longs


Dennis Berman digs up a fascinating excerpt on short-selling from the 1932 hearings on the stock market crash. it's a shame we don't seem to have anyone in Congress now even capable of formulating the question asked by New York Congressman Frank Oliver: "They blamed the 'shorts,' whereas, as a matter of fact, if the prices were inflated, they should have blamed the 'longs' for having inflated them?"


Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Insider Trading Scandals Rock London

Always cool: being an insider. Never cool: insider trading. The list of those acting, well, not very cool in Old Blighty is growing apace, with the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority taking swings at a Swiss bank (three guesses and the first two don’t count which one that is) and one of London’s oldest trading firms, which, incidentally, it already targeted less than a week ago. As office premises are duly raided and nearly a dozen traders are arrested, here are a few more reasons why it’s important to consider that just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they’re not after you.

Workers at the Swiss bank UBS and JPMorgan Cazenove, one of the oldest names in the City of London, were arrested for alleged insider dealing on Tuesday as police raids sent a chill through the UK capital’s trading rooms.

The arrests mark the third high-profile action the Financial Services Authority has taken in the past week over insider trading, in a sign of a tougher approach to a problem the regulator believes is rife in the Square Mile and a threat to the integrity of the markets.

City of London police and 40 FSA officials arrested eight people and raided premises throughout London and England’s south-east in what the regulator described as “a major ongoing investigation into insider dealing rings”.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Rally Ahead?

As of Friday, the CBOE Put/Call Ratio had fallen below 0.85, which could be a sign of a bullish week to come for U.S. indices. What's more, with the WTO in global trade policy talks this week, we could also see some follow through in equity markets, via the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar. The last WTO meeting of this magnitude was in 2001, coincidentally just about when the greenback began tumbling south. Given the market's recent selloff (and the potential reversal looming in the U.S. Dollar) equity enthusiasts may want to keep a close eye on the put/call ratio on Monday and Tuesday.


Merrill to Sell $8.5 Billion of Stock

Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm, will sell $8.5 billion of stock and liquidate $30.6 billion of bonds at a fifth of their face value to shore up credit ratings imperiled by mortgage losses.

Temasek Holdings Pte., the Singapore-owned fund that became Merrill's biggest investor by acquiring shares in December, will buy $3.4 billion of the new stock, Merrill said yesterday in a statement. The New York-based company is paying Temasek $2.5 billion to offset losses on its earlier investment. Merrill will also book $5.7 billion of writedowns in the third quarter.

Almost $19 billion of net losses in the past year forced Chief Executive Officer John Thain to backtrack from assurances that the firm had enough capital to weather the credit crisis. Since taking the post in December, Thain has raised $30 billion in an effort to keep pace with mounting charges on mortgage bonds amassed by his predecessor, Stan O'Neal. Standard & Poor's cut the firm's debt rating last month and signaled that more downgrades were possible.

``It does mark an attempt at curing the problem but at a tremendous cost to existing shareholders,'' said Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York who recommends selling Merrill shares. ``How can you be pleased by that? It's a necessity.''

Merrill rose 31 cents to $24.64 in German trading today. The company sold its 20 percent share of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, earlier this month for $4.43 billion, 11 percent less than the $5 billion market value Thain placed on the stake in June. He also agreed to sell Financial Data Services, an in- house mutual-fund administrator worth $3.5 billion.

Lone Star

``While third-quarter results and the future capital raise would be yet another burden, we do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel,'' wrote Douglas Sipkin, an analyst at Charlotte-based Wachovia Corp. who has a ``market perform'' rating on Merrill, in a note to clients today.

In yesterday's statement, Merrill said it agreed to sell $30.6 billion of collateralized debt obligations -- the mortgage- related bonds that have caused most of the firm's losses -- for $6.7 billion. The buyer is an affiliate of Lone Star Funds, a Dallas-based investment manager.

``Our consistent focus has been to opportunistically reduce risk, and in order to take advantage of this sizeable sale on an accelerated basis, we have decided to further enhance our capital position,'' Thain, 53, said in the statement.

`Little Disheartening'

Merrill will provide financing for about 75 percent of the purchase price, according to the statement. The financing is secured only by the assets being sold, meaning Merrill would absorb any losses on the CDOs beyond $1.68 billion.

The sale will result in a third-quarter pretax writedown of $4.4 billion, Merrill said. Less than two weeks ago, the firm announced $3.5 billion of CDO writedowns for the second quarter that ended in June.

Bank of America Corp. analyst Michael Hecht increased his forecast for Merrill's full-year loss by 51 percent to $11.55 per share and cut his price target for the stock to $40 from $47, according to a note to clients.

``Why these assets are written down when you're selling them and weren't written down in your earnings is a question,'' said Ralph Cole, a senior vice president in research at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc. in Portland, Oregon, which oversees $2.7 billion and doesn't own Merrill shares. ``This kind of announcement is surprising and a little disheartening.''

Thain declined to comment through Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim.

22 Cents

Merrill has lost almost 55 percent of market value this year. Only Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has fallen more on the 11- member Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index, dropping 77 percent. Merrill fell 12 percent yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Thain, who worked as a mortgage trader during his 25-year career at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said July 17 that he was ``hopeful'' that Merrill could sell its CDOs, while adding he didn't ``want to do dumb things'' by selling them too cheap.

In yesterday's statement, Thain said, ``the sale of the substantial majority of our CDO positions represents a significant milestone in our risk-reduction efforts.''

The CDOs Merrill sold to Lone Star were carried on the securities firm's books at about $11.1 billion, indicating they already had been written down to about 36 cents on the dollar. The Lone Star sale values them at about 22 cents.

Fourth Share Sale

Merrill may sell as many as 356.5 million shares in the latest offering, the firm said yesterday in a presentation for potential buyers. That represents a 36 percent increase over the number outstanding at the end of June. The price of the new shares will be set today, according to the presentation.

The share sale is Merrill's fourth since Thain took over following O'Neal's ouster last October.

Thain raised $6.2 billion in December -- when Temasek bought its initial 9.4 percent stake -- and another $6.6 billion in January. That month, he told investors Merrill had attracted more than it needed. Since then, he has repeated that the firm's capital was sufficient.

``We're very comfortable with our position,'' Thain said on Jan. 30. ``We could have raised substantially more money. We turned people away.''

Three months later he sold $2.55 billion of preferred stock. Then, after Standard & Poor's cut Merrill's credit rating to A from A+ on June 2, Thain announced he was considering a sale of Merrill's stake in Bloomberg.

Temasek Compensation

When the firm reported a $4.65 billion second-quarter net loss on July 17, Thain said the firm's resources were adequate.

``We believe that we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital,'' he said on a conference call with analysts.

In yesterday's statement, Thain said the new capital became necessary because the completion of the Lone Star deal meant additional losses had to be booked.

Merrill was contractually bound to compensate Temasek and other investors who bought shares in the December and January offerings. The stock has since plummeted almost 55 percent. So in addition to the new public offering, Merrill will pay $2.5 billion to Temasek and issue an additional 195 million shares to the other investors, according to yesterday's statement.

Losses on CDOs and the associated hedging contracts have accounted for about $27 billion of the total $41 billion of total writedowns taken by Merrill over the past year. The firm was one of the largest underwriters of CDOs before the credit crisis hit last year, and Merrill was stuck with more than $50 billion of them on its books when buyers fled the market.

XL Hedges

The remaining CDOs may be less worrisome to investors. About $7.2 billion of the $8.8 billion left are hedged with ``highly rated counterparties,'' the firm said in the statement.

In addition to the losses from the Lone Star sale, Merrill said it will record a $500 million loss related to the termination of hedging contracts on CDOs with XL Capital Assurance. It took another $800 million maximum loss related to the potential settlement of hedges with other bond-insurers.

Moody's Investors Service affirmed Merrill's A2 credit rating today after the securities firm announced the asset sale.

``We think they have taken care of much of their troublesome exposure in structured finance and real estate,'' said David Hendler, a bank analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York.

Monday, July 21, 2008

SEC's Emergency Order on Short-Selling

The SEC issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks. The SEC's order will require that anyone effecting a short sale in these securities arrange beforehand to borrow the securities and deliver them at settlement. The order will take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Monday, July 21. In addition to this emergency order, the SEC will undertake a rulemaking to address these issues across the entire market.

The Commission's emergency order, pursuant to its authority under Section 12(k)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, will be effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on July 21, 2008 and will terminate at 11:59 p.m. ET on July 29, 2008. The Commission may extend the order to continue it in effect thereafter if the Commission determines that the continuation of the order is necessary in the public interest and for the protection of investors, but for no more than 30 calendar days in total duration.

The securities identified in the Commission's order:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Bank of America Corporation.
Barclays PLC Citigroup Inc.
Credit Suisse Group Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
Deutsche Bank Group AG.
Allianz SE.
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc.
Royal Bank ADS.
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS.
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
Morgan Stanley UBS AG.
Freddie Mac.
Fannie Mae.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Short-Selling Saga: A Thing Of Unmitigated Awfulness


Whenever SEC Chairman Christopher Cox speaks, we just have to get under our desks to hide. It’s like the old “duck and cover” reflex from our childhood war days kicks back in. So, if we correctly understand the methodology behind his latest move to change short-selling rules, Cox isn't opposed to legitimate short selling, but he is opposed to “unlawful manipulation through 'naked' short selling” that might undermine the stability of financial institutions. OK, fine. But if it’s now being acknowledged that no such uptick in naked short selling took place isn’t that sort of the same thing as admitting this particular emergency action is toothless?


The federal crackdown on short selling is causing a scramble on Wall Street, with brokerage firms racing to implement new controls before the rules take effect on Monday.
The unprecedented get-tough action by the Securities and Exchange Commission means that securities firms will have to fine-tune their back-office operations to comply with the requirements.
The biggest potential headache: Existing rules allow brokers to sell stock short as long as they reasonably believe they can locate the needed shares and deliver them on time. Under the new curbs, short sellers will need to make formal arrangements to borrow the shares before selling them.
"You need to have certainty that you have the stock," one Wall Street executive said Wednesday.
The mechanics of such arrangements, as well as the charges likely to be levied for the extra legwork, are still being discussed. Wall Street brokerage executives held a conference call Wednesday morning with the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group, to discuss how to respond to the SEC's new rules and seek clarification from the agency.
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox acknowledged that the crackdown will create additional work for brokerage firms, though he said he sees "no obstacles to implementation." Agency officials delayed the effective date of the stricter short-selling requirements to "provide appropriate operational relief to the exchanges," he added.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Meredith Whitney Ingratiates Herself To Wachovia Chief

Dollar Dominatrix Meredith Whitney has probably not made a lot of friends with her sack-rippingly bad reports. Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain, always up for a heel in his ass, is not much of a fan of the Oppenheimer analyst, and Citi CEO Vikram Pandit, who likes everyone, refers her to as "that devil woman" in mixed company. One pal she's probably made via downgrade is new Wachovia CEO Robert Steel. Apparently Steel's options were priced yesterday, the same day Whitney downgraded the stock to underperform. And now the timing of this morning's marshmallow company morale building exercise--and the subsequent sixteen percent jump in stock price-- makes perfect sense.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Opening Bell: 14.7.08

S&P futures vs fair value: +14.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.0. Futures suggest a sharply higher open following news that two goverment sponsored enterprises are getting some support from the Fed and U.S. Treasury. Treasury Secretary Paulson announced a plan to temporarily increase the line of credit that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have with the Treasury, give temporary authority for Treasury to purchase equity in the companies and give the Federal Reserve more oversight on the companies. Congress needs to approve the plan. Meanwhile, both Fannie and Freddie will be allowed to access the Fed's discount window. Separately, IndyMac Bancorp (IMB) was taken over by the FDIC after a run on the bank prompted its collapse. In merger and acquisition news, Anheuser-Busch (BUD) accepted a acquisition offer from InBev, after the Belgian company sweetened its offer to $70 per share, or $52 billion, from $65 per share.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Still Down, But Not as Bad

Stocks have climbed off their opening lows, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains nearly 100 points lower. Though not as severe as earlier, the tone remains generally pessimistic as declining stocks on the NYSE outnumber advancers by almost 6-to-1.

The preliminary July Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan came in at 56.6, which is better than the 55.5 economists forecast and just above the previous 56.4 reading.

Treasury Secretary Paulson will issue a statement related to GSEs.

Attack of the Pump

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Financials Slump, Energy Advances

The Dow and S&P 500 join the Nasdaq in negative territory, with Tuesday's best-performing names under selling pressure. Conversely, the two worst-performing sectors yesterday -- materials (+1.8%) and energy (+1.5%) -- lead the market in the early going.

The financial sector (-1.2%) is under selling pressure after its 6% advance yesterday. Fannie Mae (FNM 16.78, -0.84) and Freddie Mac (FRE 12.62, -0.84) are giving back some of the hefty gains that they made yesterday.

After opening with a 4% gain, Wachovia (WB 15.22, -0.33) slumps to a 2% loss. The bank was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill Lynch. Merrill feels that if Wachovia decides to merge with a larger firm, it could receive between $16 and $20 per share.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Selling Pressure Comes Quickly

The major indices opened in positive territory, but quickly encountered a bout of selling pressure. In turn, the Nasdaq has been taken into the red.
Financials (+0.8%) are currently the best performing sector. Only energy (-0.3%), telecom (-0.2%), and technology (-0.2%) are trading with losses.
Oil is currently trading near $144.10 per barel, up roughly 0.4%.