Thursday, November 6, 2008

Stocks on the day after presidential elections

NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Wall Street hardly delivered arousing welcome to President-elect Barack Obama on Wednesday,dropping by the largest margin on record for a day following a U.S.presidential contest. The slide more than wiped out the previous day's advance, the
largest Election Day rally ever for U.S. stocks. The following table shows the percentage rise or decline in the
Dow Jones industrial average .DJI, Standard & Poor's 500 index
.SPX and Nasdaq composite index .IXIC on the day after a U.S
presidential election and who won the Election Day vote.
Year Dow S&P Nasdaq President elect:

2008 -5.05 -5.27 -5.53 Barack Obama
2004 +1.01 +1.12 +0.98 George W. Bush
2000 -0.41 -1.58 -5.39 No decision: G.W. Bush v Al Gore*
1996 +1.59 +1.46 +1.34 William Clinton
1992 -0.91 -0.67 +0.16 William Clinton
1988 -0.43 -0.66 -0.29 George H. W. Bush
1984 -0.88 -0.73 -0.32 Ronald Reagan
1980 +1.70 +1.77 +1.49 Ronald Reagan
1976 -0.99 -1.14 -1.12 James Carter
1972 -0.11 -0.55 -0.39 Richard Nixon
1968 +0.34 +0.16 --- Richard Nixon
1964 -0.19 -0.05 --- Lyndon Johnson
1960 +0.77 +0.44 --- John Kennedy
1956 -0.85 -1.03 --- Dwight Eisenhower
1952 +0.40 +0.28 --- Dwight Eisenhower
1948 -3.85 -4.15 --- Harry Truman
1944 -0.27 0.00 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1940 -2.39 -3.14 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1936 +2.26 +1.40 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1932 -4.51 -2.67 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1928 +1.20 +1.77 --- Herbert Hoover
1924 +1.17 --- --- Calvin Coolidge
1920 -0.57 --- --- Warren Harding
1916 -0.35 --- --- Woodrow Wilson
1912 +1.83 --- --- Woodrow Wilson
1908 +2.38 --- --- William Taft
1904 +1.30 --- --- Theodore Roosevelt
1900 +3.33 --- --- William McKinley
1896 +4.54 --- --- William McKinley
* George W. Bush ultimately was determined the winner of the 2000
election.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Andrew Lahde: The Hedge Fund Manager With a 1000% Return

To the pantheon including subprime shorter John Paulson and Amaranth vanquisher John Arnold we should probably now add Santa Monica hedge fund manager Andrew Lahde. Lahde almost certainly hasn't reached the billion-dollar-a-year club, but he does now officially oversee a fund – the poetically named US Residential Real Estate Hedge V Class A – which is up 1000% year-to-date.
Lahde's still very bearish on both housing (he has a new fund to short commercial real estate) and on the economy more generally (he's predicting a deep recession). But it seems he thinks the bloodletting in residential real-estate might be over: he's returning money to his investors, telling them “the risk/return characteristics are far less attractive than in the past”.
In a way, given the sheer number of hedge funds out there, and the increasing amounts of leverage they employ, it's a little surprising there aren't more funds which return 1000% in a year – and it's actually quite reassuring that such things are still rare. To have one enormously successful year, like Lahde or Paulson or Lahde, can make a man dynastically wealthy. But it doesn't make him an investing great like Buffett or Swensen or Lynch. Remember that during the housing bubble people were regularly making 1000% returns on their own money by buying and flipping condos with little or no money down. In a way it's only just that now a few hedge fund managers are making equally large returns by making bets in the opposite direction.

Friday, October 24, 2008

S&P Futures Limit Down

The overnight market made a 5% move down causing the market to go
to a "Limit Down" situation. Today will undoubtedly be an
important day in the global markets.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Thursday, October 16, 2008