Friday, March 6, 2009

Did Obama Cause the Stock Slide?

Wall Street has soured on the new Administration's policy moves. Can this relationship be saved?

Citigroup's stock price breaks a buck



Good thing the NY Stock Exchange recently relaxed that minimum $1 a share trading requirement: It seems almost inconceivable, but Citigroup is trading around one thin buck. In today's market carnage, it traded as low as $0.97 before closing at $1.02.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Dow Industrials 1982 - 2009

Technically, 7,470 in the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is the 50% retracement level of the entire bull market that began in August 1982. The previous bear market bottom was on Oct 9, 2002 when the DOW was at 7,286. We’ve gone below that level and at 7,100, we not only cut in half the October 2007 highs of 14,198.50, but we have given back 50% of the 27 year move from the start of the big bull market of the 1980s to yesterday.
If you invested in 1982 and just bought and held securities, then you’ve lost 50% of the gains that you had for retirement during that time. And at the current level (Tuesday’s close) of 6,726.02, there is no support for a long ways.
The market still has a way to go until we reach the single digit PE ratios that usually happen at the end of a bear market. John Williams, the economists who writes the Shadow Stats newsletter, thinks that the DOW could fall another 70% from these levels. He might be right but that will probably be in the third downleg of this secular bear market


Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Cramer Responds to WH Press Secretary Gibbs

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs jumped on CNBC host Jim Cramer yesterday for his analysis of the economic situation. Later in the day Jim Cramer responded to the White House attacks:

Obama Administration has decided to spend their way out of this recession:

Friday, February 27, 2009

Health Care Takes A Hit

Health Care had been the best performing of the ten S&P 500 sectors year to date up until the last few days. Up until last week, Health Care was actually in overbought territory as investors sought refuge in a sector that is typically thought of as defensive in nature. As shown in the chart below, however, the sector has recently taken a big hit on news of higher pricing and new government-related plans for the industry. Just a few days ago, more than 80% of the stocks in the Health Care sector were trading above their 50-day moving averages. Currently the percentage stands at just nineteen. When government moves in, investors head for the hills.






Source:Bespoke Investment Group